Here is Dr. Klotman’s week 125 update of the COVID apocalypse. It is interesting that the BA.5 and BA.4 sub-variants of Omicron now account for over 90% of new COVID infections. It leads me to a conjecture. As regards the infectiousness of any virus, there is probably a limit to that viruse’s R0 (the R-naught). When a viral strain reaches that theoretical limit, it will become the dominant strain and remain so. Is that strain BA.5? I don’t know, but if it is, we only need to develop a vaccine against it to stop its spread. Well, in theory, that is. Nature always has a way of striking back just when we least expect it.
If you read my musings on PoxMath, you likeloy remember that unlike SARS-CoV-2, the orthopox virus is a very stable DNA virus. It isn’t likely to mutate. You may recall that I mentioned that despite the fact that it has initially spread most rapidly among the MSM population, we must expect it to spread to the general population soon, if we do not stop it in its tracks. Some commentators have played the threat down claiming that it is isn’t very contagious and those of us who have had smallpox vaccine are probably immune. Big mistake. Monkey pox has already to spread among family contacts. There are five documented cases in American children – perhaps more since Peter Hotez wrote about these initial cases last week. I expect more and preferentially among people younger than 50. Note too that individuals who develop Monkeypox are probably infectious for a month – the length of time that it takes for the pox lesions to heal.
We shouldn’t become complacent about emerging diseases.