Proxies

Some things are so closely related that we often use one to mean the other. The same thing happens in interpreting statistical results in which two or more variables are highly correlated. Take age and chronic illness. There are certainly young people who have chronic illnesses – asthma and Type I diabetes are examples of such conditions. But, it is among older individuals that such conditions become most common – Type II diabetes, COPD, chronic heart disease, auto-immune disorders, cancer and so on. So, we may attribute to age that which is the result of chronic illness. It is like that with COVID.

I read a recent item that noted that 40+ percent of the fatal breakthrough COVID infections occurred in individuals 85+ years of age. It reminded me of the recent death of General Colin Powell whose COVID death was a breakthrough infection. Of course, General Powell had Multiple Myeloma and was on therapy for that immune system cancer. The B-cell cancer, as much as the chemotherapy for it, rendered him vulnerable to the virus for at least two reasons. His response to the COVID vaccine was attenuated by the disease itself as well as by the chemotherapy for it, and his ability to defend himself against of the infection itself was impaired for the same reasons.

That aside, I should mention that a very small proportion of vaccinated elders develop fatal breakthrough infections. The majority occurs in individuals who have cancer or some immune system impairment. For instance, only 40% of folks with solid tumors who are on chemotherapy develop a protective antibody response to COVID vaccines. So, for these individuals, vaccination does not guarantee protection. Alas.

I wonder whether ignorance, belief in conspiracy theories and/or COVID denialism are proxies for COVID infection and deaths among younger individuals with no known immune impairments. It would seem so among policemen whose greatest risk of death in the line of duty these days appears to come from COVID rather than firearms in the hands of criminals.