The probability of two completely unrelated events occurring together is the product of the probabilities of each occurring on its own. The formula is P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B). I’m thinking about this today because of the comprehensive tax audits (IRS colonoscopies without the benefit of conscious sedation, I would say) of James Comey and Andrew McCabe. These audits are said to occur among one in over 30,000 eligible tax filers.
That’s a probability of 1/30K for any such audit. So, the probability of two such audits is one in 900 million. Now, what would be the odds that a pair of such audits occurred among FBI officials who held the same office in succession? Remember that there are just 330 million Americans and only some 150 million are taxpayers.
So, it seems very unlikely that Comey and McCabe were selected at random for an audit. It seems much more likely that they were targeted either by Trump, his campaign or one of his sycophants within the IRS. The IRS IG is launching an investigation. Color me fucking skeptical that anything will be found.
All I can say is that I would not put it past a former President and Orange Rageaholic who fired McCabe hours before he was to become eligible for a full pension and also excoriated and vilified both men to do something this vengeful and petty. I hope you spend the remainder of your sad and pathetic existence behind bars, Pendejo!
I heard today that the NYT calculated the odds at one in 82 rather than 900 million. I suppose they went at the problem as a matter of drawing two individuals from a pool of 154 million. Their solution is probably better than mine, but no matter, one out of 82 million is sufficiently unlikely that it should raise a skeptical eyebrow.